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This would force interest rates to stay higher for longer, putting pressure on US businesses and consumers. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementA pair of economic reports has brought back a word no central banker ever wants to hear: stagflation. The difficult scenario occurs when inflation rises and growth stalls, a dangerous combination just experienced by the US economy.
Persons: stagflation, , Thursday's, LPL, Jeffrey Roach, Mike Reynolds, Reynolds, Jamie Dimon, Roach, shouldn't Organizations: Service, Federal, yesterday's, Fed, Wall Street, Bank of America
This would force interest rates to stay higher for longer, putting pressure on US businesses and consumers. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementA pair of economic reports has brought back a word no central banker ever wants to hear: stagflation. The difficult scenario occurs when inflation rises and growth stalls, a dangerous combination just experienced by the US economy.
Persons: stagflation, , Thursday's, LPL, Jeffrey Roach, Mike Reynolds, Reynolds, Jamie Dimon, Roach, shouldn't Organizations: Service, Federal, yesterday's, Fed, Wall Street, Bank of America
And economists are forecasting new inflation data due Friday will paint a similar picture. The GDP report gave another preview of what could come. Slowing economic growth combined with rising inflation is known as stagflation. To be fair, one GDP report isn’t necessarily indicative of a trend. He repeated that message in a Wall Street Journal interview published Thursday before the GDP report was released.
Persons: there’s, JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, we’ve, , , ” Dimon, Mike Reynolds Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, Economic, of New Locations: New York, Germany, Israel, of New York
To guard against stubborn inflation and higher-for-longer interest rates, investors should focus on quality companies with high pricing power and adjust their duration risk in bonds, according to Wall Street strategists and portfolio managers. Pricing power Companies with high pricing power tend to outperform when inflation is elevated because they have the ability to defend their profit margins by passing along higher costs to their end market customers. "In equities, you should prefer companies that have pricing power, i.e. "When inflation is the predominant risk in markets, correlations between stocks and traditional bonds tend to be high. BlackRock's iShares strategy team recently argued that investors should take advantage of spikes in bond yields while they can and reinvest their cash.
Persons: Stocks, Brad Conger, Sonu Varghese, Jason Pride, Pride, Rick Rieder Organizations: Dow Jones, Treasury, Street, Callaghan, Co, Big Tech, Carson Group, Securities, U.S ., Glenmede Trust Locations: Hirtle, BlackRock
"While investors seem to be anxiously awaiting easing monetary policy, the current environment does not quite scream 'rate cuts!'" That sentiment has manifested itself lately in market pricing. That same day, the Labor Department will release the CPI report, which is expected to show the headline inflation rate rising 3.4% in March on a year-over-year basis, per Dow Jones. This is nonetheless "the right time to cut rates," wrote David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management. "What has underpinned this market is the promise of a series of rate cuts including March, and now it has dwindled to just a few rate cuts.
Persons: Glenmede, Dow Jones, David Kelly, Kelly, Nicholas Colas, Colas, Ed Yardeni, nonfarm, Quincy Krosby, Krosby Organizations: Federal Reserve, Investors, Labor Department, Asset Management, Fed, DataTrek, Yardeni, LPL
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email2024 will be the last stretch to the Fed's 2% goal, says Glenmede's Jason PrideJason Pride, chief investment officer of private clients at Glenmede, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss the Fed's next move and reaching its 2% inflation target.
Persons: Jason Pride Jason Pride
If nothing else, the January inflation report released Tuesday finally appears to have convinced markets that Federal Reserve officials weren't kidding around when they said they will take a deliberate approach to cutting interest rates this year. Following the consumer price index report showing the year-over-year reading well ahead of the Fed's desired inflation goal, markets recalibrated their monetary policy expectations. The Fed "faces a challenging task in balancing economic growth and employment while trying to control inflation," he added. Indeed, the narrative of the Fed being able to start cutting early, and moving rapidly through the year, was all but dead Tuesday. The January CPI report is a "setback for the Fed and makes a May rate cut unlikely.
Persons: Ditto, , it's, Sung Won Sohn, Dow, Jerome Powell, Jason Pride, there's, Powell, Matthew Ryan, Krishna Guha, Guha Organizations: Federal Reserve, CME, Labor, CPI, Loyola Marymount University, SS Economics, Dow Jones, US2Y, CBS, Bank of America, Citigroup, Fed, Evercore ISI
A trader works on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 16, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Nov 17 (Reuters) - Are U.S. stocks poised to continue their dramatic run, or is a pause ahead? The index is now up nearly 18% for the year and less than 2% away from its year-high, reached in July. Analysts at Ned Davis Research, which has been recommending an overweight to stocks, this week said investors should further shift into equities and away from bonds. One source of worry has been a renewed climb in stocks' valuations.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, , Yung, Yu Ma, Ned Davis, Ed Clissold, ” Robert Pavlik, Pavlik, Seasonality, LSEG Datastream, Jason Pride, Keith Lerner, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, Nick Zieminski Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, BMO Wealth Management, National Association of Active Investment, Reuters Graphics, Treasury, Ned, Ned Davis Research, , CPI, Dakota Wealth, Nvidia, Advisory Services, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S
A trader works on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 16, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Nov 17 (Reuters) - Are U.S. stocks poised to continue their dramatic run, or is a pause ahead? The index is now up 17% for the year and about 6% from its record closing high from January 2022. Analysts at Ned Davis Research, which has been recommending an overweight to stocks, this week said investors should further shift into equities and away from bonds. One source of worry has been a renewed climb in stocks' valuations.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, , Yung, Yu Ma, Ned Davis, Ed Clissold, ” Robert Pavlik, Pavlik, Seasonality, LSEG Datastream, Jason Pride, Keith Lerner, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, Nick Zieminski Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, BMO Wealth Management, National Association of Active Investment, Reuters Graphics, Treasury, Ned, Ned Davis Research, , CPI, Dakota Wealth, Nvidia, Advisory Services, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S
A recently edgy bond market gobbled all that up. Funds' bonds allocation in November soared 18 points over the month to leave them net 19% overweight - almost 3 standard deviations above long-term averages. Asset managers' overweight bond positions - or at least those in government bonds and U.S. Treasuries - tends to be mirrored by big short positions in Treasury futures among speculative hedge funds. CFTC numbers show the scale of that speculative 'Big Short' on the flipside of the mounting 'Big Long' built by regular asset managers. Lamont points out that U.S. Treasury yields and investment grade corporate debt yields would have to rise about another 100bps for the capital losses to wipe out current yields.
Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Lazard, Ronald Temple, Lombard Odier's Florian Ielpo, Duncan Lamont, Lamont, Jason Pride, Mike Dolan, Susan Fenton Organizations: El Progreso Market, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Bank of America's, Treasury, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Mount Pleasant, Washington ,, what's
CNBC Daily Open: The Moody’s downgrade was a non-event
  + stars: | 2023-11-14 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
In this article AMZNDISGSNFLXENR-DEXOM Follow your favorite stocks CREATE FREE ACCOUNTThe US Treasury building in Washington, DC, US, on Tuesday, Aug. 15, 2023. Nathan Howard | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Investors, focused on the week ahead, are already shrugging off bad news from last week. On Friday, Moody's Investors Service cut its ratings outlook on the U.S. government from stable to negative.
Persons: Nathan Howard, Joe Biden, Xi Jinping, Fitch, Treasurys, There's, Michael Reynolds, Goldman Sachs, Peter Oppenheimer, Jeff Cox Organizations: Treasury, Bloomberg, Getty, CNBC, U.S, Investors, Moody's, Service, Poor's, Glenmede Investment Management, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Reserve Locations: Washington , DC, Israel, U.S
Michael M. Santiago | Getty ImagesThere was a time when bad news about U.S. debt would send markets into a tailspin, but not this month. Markets on Monday shrugged at a warning Friday from Moody's Investor's Service that it was lowering its ratings outlook on Treasurys. But with the domestic fiscal and political mess seemingly old news, the ratings service saber-rattling just doesn't seem to have the same impact. "There's no piercing insight from Moody's that they have proprietary information that nobody knows about the U.S. government. watch nowIndeed, no one has to tell investors about the $33.7 trillion U.S. debt and the $1.7 trillion deficit in fiscal 2023.
Persons: Michael M, Fitch, There's, Michael Reynolds Organizations: New York Stock, Santiago, Moody's Investor's, Poor's, U.S, Glenmede Investment Management, . Locations: New York City, Washington, Wall
Here’s what’s causing the market fears:High bond yieldsSurging yields have contributed to one of the worst periods for bond market performance in history and pressured equity markets. The company reported quarterly profits of $9.9 billion, also beating estimates. Shares of Meta slid last week after the Facebook parent company reported that advertising revenue had been soft this quarter. Jerominski told CNN that there have been at least 25 store closures. Fraser Engerman, a Walgreens spokesperson, told CNN that just two stores closed on Monday and no more than 12 pharmacists walked out across the entire country.
Persons: Dow, Rob Almeida, , Jason Pride, , don’t, Erik Weisman, Seema Shah, JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, Wall, Shane Jerominski, Jerominski, Fraser Engerman, Max —, Tim Cook, Apple Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN —, Traders, Nasdaq, MFS Investment Management, Federal Reserve, Asset Management, LPL Research, JPMorgan, Big Tech, Meta, Facebook, Reality Labs, Google, CVS, Walgreens, Staff, CNN, Workers, Apple Locations: New York, United States, Israel, Russia, Ukraine, China, Arizona , Washington , Massachusetts, Oregon, Southern California, Chicago, Deerfield, Apple’s Cupertino , California
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 28, 2023. A Labor Department report showed U.S. job openings unexpectedly increased in August, pointing to tight labor market conditions. Traders' bets on at least another 25-basis-point rate hike stood in November and December at 30% and 48%, respectively, according to CME's FedWatch tool. The CBOE volatility index (.VIX), known as Wall Street's "fear gauge", touched a more than four-month high, reflecting heightened investor anxiety. Declining issues outnumbered advancers for a 5.99-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and a 3.50-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Loretta Mester, Raphael Bostic, Jason Pride, KeyBanc, McCormick, advancers, Ankika Biswas, Shashwat Chauhan, Vinay Dwivedi, Maju Samuel Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Microsoft, Dow, Nasdaq, Labor Department, Cleveland Fed, Atlanta, Traders, Apple, Reuters, Ofcom, Dow Jones, ADP, HP, BofA Global Research, Boeing, United Airlines, NYSE, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Glenmede, Philadelphia, Bengaluru
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., August 15, 2023. Ford Motor (F.N) advanced 2.5% after Reuters reported the United Auto Workers (UAW) was set to announce progress in labor contract talks with the carmaker. Several Fed policymakers, including policy voting member Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari, are set to speak during the day. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 2.11-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by a 1.44-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded one new 52-week high and 26 new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 14 new highs and 102 new lows.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, dampening, Jason Pride, Neel Kashkari, Li Auto, Alibaba, Bernstein, Wells, Ankika Biswas, Shristi, Anil D'Silva, Vinay Dwivedi Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Activision, Microsoft, Ford, Reuters, UAW, Dow, Nasdaq, United Auto Workers, U.S, Treasury, Apple, Nvidia, Minneapolis, Dow Jones, PDD Holdings, Baidu, Hong, Charter Communications, NYSE, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Glenmede, Philadelphia, Hong Kong, Bengaluru
All this uncertainty has led markets to lack conviction, flip-flopping as conflicting narratives around inflation rates and Fed hikes prevail. But this week’s readings — just a few days ahead of the Fed’s September policy meeting -— could give the markets direction. “Getting core inflation to 2% won’t come quickly, and upside risks remain,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate. And while the Fed generally looks at core inflation, the impact of crude prices often extends into other areas of the economy. Pensions and inflation adjustments: The UAW wants a return of traditional pension payment plans and retiree health care for all UAW members.
Persons: There’s, , Price, Jason Pride, Michael Reynolds, Glenmede, , Greg McBride, David Kelly, Chris Isidore, Shawn Fain, they’re, Chris, Jordan Valinsky, Instacart, Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, United Auto Workers, Federal, Consumer, of America, JPMorgan Asset Management, UAW, Ford, Jeep, Dodge, Chrysler, Workers, Union Locations: New York, China, Saudi Arabia, Russia, America, Instacart
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailAI won't have a near-term effect on bottom lines, says Glenmede's Jason PrideJason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss the strength of the market despite economic headwinds, over enthusiasm in the market about AI, and why Japan may be benefiting from the current inflationary environment.
Persons: Jason Pride Jason Pride Locations: Japan
The yield on the 10-year Treasury notes climbed to 4.23%, while two-year yield rose to 4.928% in the run-up to more economic data this week. "The recession is definitely delayed within the United States ... we are seeing fairly weak economic environments in both China and Europe." U.S. economic data since the Fed's July meeting has added to the impression the economy is cooling without cracking, likely bolstering the case against further interest rate increases. All three main U.S. stock indexes logged gains in the previous week after data pointed to a softening labor market. The S&P index recorded eight new 52-week highs and 13 new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 27 new highs and 63 new lows.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Blackstone, China stoked, Jason Pride, Alibaba, Goldman Sachs, advancers, Shristi Achar, Arun Koyyur, Shounak Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, China, Dow, Nasdaq, Apple, PDD Holdings, Baidu, Labor, Traders, Dow Jones, Blackstone, NYSE, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, China, United States, Europe, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Bengaluru
New York CNN —The Chinese economy has hit a rough patch. What’s happening: Chinese consumer spending, factory production and investments in long-term assets like property or machinery all slumped last month. On Monday, the Chinese government surprised investors by deciding not to cut an important interest rate that influences mortgages. The beauty company is “mindful of the headwinds that have emerged in China’s economy,” said the report. And even still, many regional banks have struggled to prevent deposit outflows.
Persons: , Jason Pride, Michael Reynolds, Lisa Shalett, Edward Moya, Estee Lauder, Moya, , Elisabeth Buchwald, Moody’s, ‘ Barbie ’, “ Barbie ”, Jordan Valinsky, Greta Gerwig, “ Oppenheimer, “ Barbie Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, European, Apple, Intel, Ford, Starbucks, Nike, Saudi, Comerica Inc, National Bancorp, UMB Financial Corp, Bank of New York Mellon, State, Northern Trust, & $ Locations: New York, China, Europe, Beijing, Asia, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Silicon
Megacap technology-related growth stocks dipped, with Alphabet (GOOGL.O) and Tesla (TSLA.O) falling, as investors fretted that interest rates could stay higher for longer. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (.IXIC) posted the biggest weekly decline of the three major indices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 34.29 points, or 0.10%, to 34,510.38. The S&P 500 energy index (.SPNY) rose, with Exxon Mobil (XOM.N) among leading gainers. Shares of cryptocurrency firm Coinbase Global (COIN.O) fell and Riot Platform (RIOT.O) tumbled as bitcoin hit a two-month low.
Persons: Jason Reed, Estee Lauder, Jerome Powell, Nvidia's, Michael Reynolds, Amruta Khandekar, Saeed Azhar, Maju Samuel, David Gregorio Our Organizations: U.S . Federal, REUTERS, Federal, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Dow Jones, Walmart, Exxon Mobil, Treasury, Thursday, Hawaiian, Coinbase, Thomson Locations: Washington, Bengaluru, New York
The minutes of the Fed's July monetary policy meeting showed most policymakers continue to prioritize the battle against inflation, adding to uncertainty among investors about the outlook for interest rates. Bank shares extended losses, with the S&P 500 bank index <.SPXBK> down 1% and Bank of America (BAC.N) leading losses among bigger banks to end 2.2% lower. Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 19, 2023. Equities have suffered through a rough patch in August, with the S&P 500 languishing near one-month lows as data underscoring sticky inflation and a robust economy fans fears of interest rates staying elevated for longer. The S&P 500 posted four new 52-week highs and 18 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 36 new highs and 255 new lows.
Persons: Banks, we're, Peter Tuz, Brendan McDermid, Mike Reynolds, Saeed Azhar, Noel Randewich, Amruta, Lewis Krauskopf, Maju Samuel, Vinay Dwivedi, Deepa Babington Organizations: Nasdaq, Dow, Federal, Chase Investment, , Dow Jones, Bank, Bank of America, Nvidia, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Walmart, NYSE, Thomson Locations: Charlottesville , Virginia, New York City, U.S, New York, Bengaluru
The S&P 500 Banks index (.SPXBK) has slipped 2.5% year to date, compared with a 17.2% gain by the S&P 500, and the downgrades exposed the fragility of investors' confidence towards financial stocks. The banks index slid 1.1% on Tuesday, while the KBW Regional Banking index (.KRX) dipped 1.4%. Reaction to the bank downgrades pushed up the CBOE Market Volatility index (.VIX), Wall Street's fear gauge, at one point hitting a two-month high. Eight of the 11 major S&P 500 sectors fell. The S&P 500 posted 13 new 52-week highs and 17 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 46 new highs and 195 new lows.
Persons: Eli Lilly, Moody's, Goldman Sachs, Jason Pride, Brendan McDermid, Bansari Mayur Kamdar, Johann M, David French, Sriraj Kalluvila, Vinay Dwivedi, Richard Chang Organizations: Dow, Nasdaq, Bank of New York Mellon, U.S . Bancorp, Truist, Silicon Valley Bank, Bank of America, Traders, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Dow Jones, Novo Nordisk, Dish Network, United Parcel Service, Thomson Locations: U.S, Silicon, KBW, New York City, China, Denmark, Bengaluru, New York
"Rising debt + rising interest costs – debt servicing cost disaster," the research firm said. "Rising debt + rising interest costs – debt servicing cost disaster." Meanwhile, the government's debt servicing costs hit $475 billion in 2022, up 35% from the $352 billion spent to service the national debt in 2021. Debt servicing costs will likely increase to $663 billion this year, the CBO estimated, with total interest payments on the debt potentially mounting to $10.6 trillion over the next 10 years. Rising debt servicing costs pose trouble for markets and economy.
Persons: Stephen Pavlick, Pavlick, that's, Glenmede Organizations: Service, Macro, Congressional, Office, Committee, Federal Budget, Fed, CBO, New York Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon
AI investment is booming. How much is hype?
  + stars: | 2023-07-23 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +7 min
The investment into Mistral AI is just one of many this year by venture capitalists jostling for a seat aboard the AI rocketship. In the first six months of 2023, they plowed $15.2 billion into generative AI companies globally, according to Pitchbook data. The bulk of this sum comes from Microsoft (MSFT)’s $10 billion investment, announced in January, in OpenAI, the developer of popular generative AI chatbot ChatGPT. But even excluding Microsoft’s bumper deal, the value of VC investments in generative AI was up by almost 58% compared with the same period in 2022. “Buying a ‘dot-ai’ domain, and claiming to be an AI company… doesn’t really make you an AI company,” Jacobs told CNN.
Persons: Antoine Moyroud, wasn’t, , Arthur Mensch, Nathan Laine, hasn’t, ” Mostaque, jostling, Moyroud, , ’ “, , ” Moyroud, It’s, Jaap Arriens, Goldman Sachs, Stocks, Mike Reynolds, Reynolds, , “ It’s, ” Reynolds, ” Jordan Jacobs, … doesn’t, ” Jacobs Organizations: London CNN, Lightspeed Venture Partners, CNN, Mistral, Viva Tech, Bloomberg, Getty, Stability, Microsoft, Meta, Nvidia, Nasdaq, Cisco, Radical Ventures Locations: French, Paris, California, OpenAI, , Toronto
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 209,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department said on Friday. "Today's numbers confirm the job market is still strong... and this report gives the green light to the Fed to raise rates. "If anything, it probably confirms this idea that the Fed has had that they are making progress in the right direction." "It's not like this is a sudden vast improvement in the labor market." The hours worked numbers are rising slower than the payrolls numbers.
Persons: Nonfarm, payrolls, CANDICE, GOLDMAN, BEN JEFFERY, , PETER CARDILLO, we're, STUART COLE, JASON PRIDE, MICHAEL BROWN, , ” BRIAN JACOBSEN, MENOMONEE Organizations: YORK, Labor Department, Reuters, Treasury, BMO, NFP, Fed, Global Finance, Markets, Thomson Locations: GOLDMAN SACHS, PHILADELPHIA, WISCONSIN
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